San Francisco 49ers win the Super Bowl in February 2027

Category: Sports
Resolves: Feb 14, 2027

Polymarket

12.7% chance of yes

24h change: Not reported
24h volume: $976
Price as of: 18:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Gap

−1.9pp

Kalshi prices yes 1.9 points higher.

Kalshi

14.5% chance of yes

24h change: 0.0pp
24h volume: $9K
Price as of: 18:02 UTC

View on Kalshi

Last 7 days

Hourly yes probability on each venue, and the gap between them. Hover or use the arrow keys on the chart to read exact values.

Gap, Polymarket − Kalshi−1.9pp

Above zero: Polymarket higherBelow: Kalshi higher

View as a table

Yes probability on each venue and the gap, every six hours
Time (UTC)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Oct 17, 18:02	12.7%	14.5%	−1.9pp
Oct 17, 18:00	12.7%	14.5%	−1.9pp
Oct 17, 12:00	12.7%	14.5%	−1.9pp
Oct 17, 06:00	12.7%	14.5%	−1.9pp
Oct 17, 00:00	12.7%	14.5%	−1.9pp
Oct 16, 18:00	12.7%	14.5%	−1.9pp
Oct 16, 12:00	12.6%	14.5%	−2.0pp
Oct 16, 06:00	12.6%	14.5%	−2.0pp
Oct 16, 00:00	12.6%	13.5%	−1.0pp
Oct 15, 18:00	12.6%	13.5%	−0.9pp
Oct 15, 12:00	12.7%	13.5%	−0.9pp
Oct 15, 06:00	12.7%	13.5%	−0.9pp
Oct 15, 00:00	11.9%	13.5%	−1.6pp
Oct 14, 18:00	12.0%	13.5%	−1.5pp
Oct 14, 12:00	12.0%	13.0%	−1.0pp
Oct 14, 06:00	12.5%	13.0%	−0.5pp
Oct 14, 00:00	12.2%	12.5%	−0.4pp
Oct 13, 18:00	11.5%	11.5%	0.0pp
Oct 13, 12:00	13.0%	12.5%	+0.5pp
Oct 13, 06:00	12.3%	12.5%	−0.3pp
Oct 13, 00:00	11.5%	11.5%	0.0pp
Oct 12, 18:00	11.5%	11.5%	0.0pp
Oct 12, 12:00	11.1%	12.5%	−1.4pp
Oct 12, 06:00	11.3%	12.5%	−1.2pp
Oct 12, 00:00	10.3%	10.5%	−0.2pp
Oct 11, 18:00	9.9%	9.5%	+0.4pp
Oct 11, 12:00	9.7%	9.5%	+0.2pp
Oct 11, 06:00	9.5%	9.5%	0.0pp
Oct 11, 00:00	9.6%	10.5%	−1.0pp

In the news

Headlines from the past few days that match this event. A headline next to a move is a lead to check, not proof of cause.

“I Was Sick for Like a While”: George Kittle Shares Health Update After Vomiting Before Seahawks Game(opens in a new tab)
Yahoo! News · 03:00 UTC
49ers Announce Concerning Injury Update on WR Mike Evans Before Commanders Game(opens in a new tab)
Yahoo! News · 02:02 UTC
Seahawks sticking with Sam Darnold as starter despite INTs - ESPN(opens in a new tab)
Players · 20:05 UTC
Analyst says 49ers will win a Super Bowl with Purdy and Shanahan(opens in a new tab)
Yahoo! News · 19:16 UTC
Why 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has Struggled vs. Commanders HC Dan Quinn(opens in a new tab)
Sports Illustrated · 18:00 UTC
Sam Darnold owns up to turnovers in Seahawks loss to Broncos - ESPN(opens in a new tab)
Players · 13:31 UTC
Remember when a 49ers player got shot at a Super Bowl party? 4 men just got arrested in connection with shooting(opens in a new tab)
Yahoo! News · 00:31 UTC
49ers aim to stay unbeaten, Commanders look to escape misery(opens in a new tab)
Yardbarker · 23:51 UTC

Probabilities are bid/ask midpoints (or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢), shown to one decimal, e.g. 65.5%. See the methodology and risk disclaimer.