Democrat wins the 2026 Ohio Senate race

Category: Politics
Resolves: Nov 3, 2026

Polymarket

65.5% chance of yes

24h change: +1.0pp
24h volume: $9K
Price as of: 18:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Gap

+1.0pp

Polymarket prices yes 1.0 points higher.

Kalshi

64.5% chance of yes

24h change: +1.0pp
24h volume: $24K
Price as of: 18:02 UTC

View on Kalshi

Last 7 days

Hourly yes probability on each venue, and the gap between them. Hover or use the arrow keys on the chart to read exact values.

Gap, Polymarket − Kalshi+1.0pp

Above zero: Polymarket higherBelow: Kalshi higher

View as a table

Yes probability on each venue and the gap, every six hours
Time (UTC)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Oct 17, 18:02	65.5%	64.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 17, 18:00	65.5%	64.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 17, 12:00	65.5%	64.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 17, 06:00	64.5%	64.5%	0.0pp
Oct 17, 00:00	65.0%	64.5%	+0.5pp
Oct 16, 18:00	64.5%	63.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 16, 12:00	61.5%	60.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 16, 06:00	61.5%	60.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 16, 00:00	61.5%	60.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 15, 18:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 15, 12:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 15, 06:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 15, 00:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 14, 18:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 14, 12:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 14, 06:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 14, 00:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 13, 18:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 13, 12:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 13, 06:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 13, 00:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 12, 18:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 12, 12:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 12, 06:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 12, 00:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 11, 18:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 11, 12:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 11, 06:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp
Oct 11, 00:00	61.5%	59.5%	+2.0pp

In the news

Headlines from the past few days that match this event. A headline next to a move is a lead to check, not proof of cause.

Brown, Acton both up 6 points in Ohio races: poll(opens in a new tab)
The Hill · 16:57 UTC

Probabilities are bid/ask midpoints (or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢), shown to one decimal, e.g. 65.5%. See the methodology and risk disclaimer.