Democrats win control of the House in 2026

Category: Politics
Resolves: Nov 3, 2026

Polymarket

90.5% chance of yes

24h change: Not reported
24h volume: $305K
Price as of: 18:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Gap

+0.4pp

The two venues agree to within half a point.

Kalshi

90.1% chance of yes

24h change: 0.0pp
24h volume: $284K
Price as of: 18:02 UTC

View on Kalshi

Last 7 days

Hourly yes probability on each venue, and the gap between them. Hover or use the arrow keys on the chart to read exact values.

Gap, Polymarket − Kalshi+0.4pp

Above zero: Polymarket higherBelow: Kalshi higher

View as a table

Yes probability on each venue and the gap, every six hours
Time (UTC)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Oct 17, 18:02	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 17, 18:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 17, 12:00	90.5%	90.2%	+0.3pp
Oct 17, 06:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 17, 00:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 16, 18:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 16, 12:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 16, 06:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 16, 00:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 15, 18:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 15, 12:00	90.5%	90.3%	+0.2pp
Oct 15, 06:00	90.5%	90.3%	+0.2pp
Oct 15, 00:00	90.5%	90.3%	+0.2pp
Oct 14, 18:00	90.5%	90.3%	+0.2pp
Oct 14, 12:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 14, 06:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 14, 00:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 13, 18:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 13, 12:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 13, 06:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 13, 00:00	90.5%	89.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 12, 18:00	90.5%	89.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 12, 12:00	90.5%	89.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 12, 06:00	90.5%	89.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 12, 00:00	90.5%	89.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 11, 18:00	90.5%	89.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 11, 12:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 11, 06:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 11, 00:00	90.5%	90.1%	+0.4pp
Oct 10, 18:00	90.5%	—	—

In the news

Headlines from the past few days that match this event. A headline next to a move is a lead to check, not proof of cause.

Democrats 'champing at the bit' to make Mike Johnson's darkest fears a reality: report(opens in a new tab)
Raw Story · 17:01 UTC
Why the Democrats Might Not Flip the Senate(opens in a new tab)
The New Republic · 13:05 UTC
What did Speaker Dy tell him? Sandro Marcos explains reason for switching to Lakas-CMD(opens in a new tab)
Manila Bulletin · 06:06 UTC
2026 Election Overview(opens in a new tab)
Political Wire · 21:30 UTC

Probabilities are bid/ask midpoints (or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢), shown to one decimal, e.g. 65.5%. See the methodology and risk disclaimer.