Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election

Category: World
Resolves: Apr 25, 2027

Polymarket

46.9% chance of yes

24h change: +1.1pp
24h volume: $29K
Price as of: 18:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Gap

+0.4pp

The two venues agree to within half a point.

Kalshi

46.5% chance of yes

24h change: 0.0pp
24h volume: $82
Price as of: 18:02 UTC

View on Kalshi

Last 7 days

Hourly yes probability on each venue, and the gap between them. Hover or use the arrow keys on the chart to read exact values.

Gap, Polymarket − Kalshi+0.4pp

Above zero: Polymarket higherBelow: Kalshi higher

View as a table

Yes probability on each venue and the gap, every six hours
Time (UTC)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Oct 17, 18:02	46.9%	46.5%	+0.4pp
Oct 17, 18:00	46.9%	46.5%	+0.4pp
Oct 17, 12:00	46.5%	46.5%	0.0pp
Oct 17, 06:00	45.9%	46.5%	−0.6pp
Oct 17, 00:00	45.8%	46.5%	−0.7pp
Oct 16, 18:00	46.0%	46.5%	−0.5pp
Oct 16, 12:00	46.3%	46.5%	−0.2pp
Oct 16, 06:00	46.3%	46.5%	−0.2pp
Oct 16, 00:00	47.3%	45.5%	+1.8pp
Oct 15, 18:00	47.4%	44.5%	+2.9pp
Oct 15, 12:00	44.5%	43.5%	+1.1pp
Oct 15, 06:00	44.0%	43.5%	+0.5pp
Oct 15, 00:00	44.0%	43.5%	+0.5pp
Oct 14, 18:00	44.0%	44.5%	−0.6pp
Oct 14, 12:00	44.6%	44.5%	+0.2pp
Oct 14, 06:00	43.1%	44.5%	−1.4pp
Oct 14, 00:00	43.1%	44.5%	−1.4pp
Oct 13, 18:00	43.8%	44.5%	−0.8pp
Oct 13, 12:00	42.1%	42.5%	−0.4pp
Oct 13, 06:00	41.9%	42.5%	−0.7pp
Oct 13, 00:00	41.9%	42.5%	−0.7pp
Oct 12, 18:00	41.9%	43.0%	−1.2pp
Oct 12, 12:00	40.0%	42.5%	−2.5pp
Oct 12, 06:00	40.0%	42.5%	−2.5pp
Oct 12, 00:00	40.0%	42.5%	−2.5pp
Oct 11, 18:00	39.4%	43.5%	−4.1pp
Oct 11, 12:00	40.3%	42.5%	−2.2pp
Oct 11, 06:00	39.5%	43.5%	−4.0pp
Oct 11, 00:00	39.4%	43.5%	−4.1pp
Oct 10, 18:00	40.3%	—	—

In the news

Headlines from the past few days that match this event. A headline next to a move is a lead to check, not proof of cause.

No recent headlines matched this event's keywords.

Probabilities are bid/ask midpoints (or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢), shown to one decimal, e.g. 65.5%. See the methodology and risk disclaimer.