Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or

Category: Sports
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

Polymarket

64.1% chance of yes

24h change: −0.7pp
24h volume: $78K
Price as of: 18:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Gap

+0.6pp

Polymarket prices yes 0.6 points higher.

Kalshi

63.5% chance of yes

24h change: 0.0pp
24h volume: $14K
Price as of: 18:02 UTC

View on Kalshi

Last 7 days

Hourly yes probability on each venue, and the gap between them. Hover or use the arrow keys on the chart to read exact values.

Gap, Polymarket − Kalshi+0.6pp

Above zero: Polymarket higherBelow: Kalshi higher

View as a table

Yes probability on each venue and the gap, every six hours
Time (UTC)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Oct 17, 18:02	64.1%	63.5%	+0.6pp
Oct 17, 18:00	64.0%	63.5%	+0.5pp
Oct 17, 12:00	64.6%	63.5%	+1.1pp
Oct 17, 06:00	64.1%	63.5%	+0.6pp
Oct 17, 00:00	64.8%	64.5%	+0.3pp
Oct 16, 18:00	64.8%	63.5%	+1.2pp
Oct 16, 12:00	63.5%	63.5%	0.0pp
Oct 16, 06:00	63.9%	62.5%	+1.4pp
Oct 16, 00:00	64.0%	63.5%	+0.5pp
Oct 15, 18:00	63.7%	63.5%	+0.2pp
Oct 15, 12:00	63.2%	63.5%	−0.3pp
Oct 15, 06:00	63.0%	63.0%	0.0pp
Oct 15, 00:00	62.5%	64.5%	−2.0pp
Oct 14, 18:00	62.0%	60.5%	+1.5pp
Oct 14, 12:00	62.1%	60.5%	+1.6pp
Oct 14, 06:00	62.3%	61.5%	+0.8pp
Oct 14, 00:00	62.8%	61.5%	+1.3pp
Oct 13, 18:00	62.6%	61.5%	+1.1pp
Oct 13, 12:00	61.5%	60.5%	+1.0pp
Oct 13, 06:00	62.9%	62.5%	+0.4pp
Oct 13, 00:00	65.8%	64.5%	+1.3pp
Oct 12, 18:00	65.8%	64.5%	+1.2pp
Oct 12, 12:00	66.4%	64.5%	+1.9pp
Oct 12, 06:00	65.0%	64.5%	+0.5pp
Oct 12, 00:00	65.8%	65.5%	+0.3pp
Oct 11, 18:00	66.3%	64.5%	+1.8pp
Oct 11, 12:00	66.8%	64.5%	+2.3pp
Oct 11, 06:00	66.5%	64.5%	+1.9pp
Oct 11, 00:00	63.7%	62.5%	+1.2pp
Oct 10, 18:00	61.1%	—	—

In the news

Headlines from the past few days that match this event. A headline next to a move is a lead to check, not proof of cause.

‘I stress about it’ – Moyes on future ambitions for Everton(opens in a new tab)
Tnt Sports · 14:17 UTC
‘Joyous scenes!’ – Trabzonspor fans go wild after ‘wonderful’ Salah strike(opens in a new tab)
Tnt Sports · 11:53 UTC
‘Redemption’ – Onana makes ‘excellent’ penalty save after corner blunder(opens in a new tab)
Tnt Sports · 11:44 UTC
‘One of the most extraordinary goals’ – Onana beaten by direct corner(opens in a new tab)
Tnt Sports · 11:43 UTC
‘Huge for Michael Carrick’ – Ally, Fletch predict more Man Utd agony at Leeds(opens in a new tab)
Tnt Sports · 10:05 UTC
Gerrard drops by Ally v Fletch to make Liverpool prediction at Brentford(opens in a new tab)
Tnt Sports · 09:57 UTC
Harry Kane makes decision on Bayern Munich future amid contract discussions(opens in a new tab)
Gb News · 09:19 UTC
Watch: 'A welcome back' for Fati as he deals 'hammer blow' to CSKA Sofia(opens in a new tab)
Tnt Sports · 22:18 UTC

Probabilities are bid/ask midpoints (or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢), shown to one decimal, e.g. 65.5%. See the methodology and risk disclaimer.